Based on the situation mastered by
CCM, this issue will give a forecast on the market situation of China's
glyphosate industry in 2015, including the situation forecast of China’s
glyphosate manufacturers, forecast and analysis of China’s glyphosate demand,
output and ex-works price.
Situation forecast of China’s glyphosate
manufacturers
1. Forecast and analysis of how
many glyphosate enterprises and how much production capacity will participate
into China’s market in 2015
China mainly expanded its production
capacity in recent 2013 and 2014. And it is also in 2013 and 2014 that there
are new participants in the glyphosate industry. According to the current
information, no new entrants have been detected yet in China’s glyphosate
industry in 2015. Therefore, it is predicted that there will be no new entrants
into China’s glyphosate industry. However, there will be about new production
capacity of glyphosate technical of 110,000 t/a, a result of capacity expansion
by the existing glyphosate enterprises in the glyphosate industry.
2. Forecast and analysis of how
many glyphosate enterprises and how much production capacity will withdraw from
China’s market in 2015
In terms of the comprehensive environmental
costs in treating glyphosate waste liquid, if the Chinese government still
exercises strict environmental inspection on the glyphosate industry, which not
only causes unstable production capacity operation but also then leads to
unsteady income, most glyphosate technical enterprises with a production
capacity of less than 10,000 t/a will not improve and upgrade their
environmental capability, let alone those glyphosate technical enterprises with
a production capacity of less than 5,000 t/a. Therefore, there is a possibility
that China’s glyphosate technical enterprises (＜10,000 t/a) will
gradually withdraw from the market or be acquired by those glyphosate
enterprises with stronger production capacity. It is predicted that there will
be 5-10 glyphosate enterprises, totaling a production capacity of about
30,000-40,000 t/a, withdrawing from the market or being acquired by other
glyphosate enterprises in 2015.
3. Forecast and analysis of how
many glyphosate enterprises and how much production capacity will be in China
in 2015
Summarizing the new production capacity
from the new entrants and the outgoing production capacity from the dropouts in
China’s glyphosate industry in 2015, it is predicted that there will be about
more than 30 glyphosate technical enterprises in China in 2015, totaling a
production capacity of about 950,000 t/a-1 million t/a.
Forecast and analysis of China’s glyphosate
demand
In view of the difficult increment of
China’s crop planting areas, in 2015, China’s crop planting areas will be basically
the same as that of the previous years, about some more 121.8 million ha (1.8
billion mu). Generally speaking, the domestic demand for glyphosate will be
kept at about 60,000 tonnes.
Forecast and analysis of China’s glyphosate
output
At present, China’s glyphosate production
capacity is likely to keep on growing up in 2015 and the new production
capacity has to get back its investment through starting production and sales.
Thus the new production capacity perhaps will boost the output. Although the global
planting areas for genetically modified (GM) crops in 2014 have reached 181.50
million ha, breaking the record, the annual growth rate is only 3%-4%. It is
predicted that the growth rate of the global planting areas for GM crops will
be still less than 5%, thus driving up the demand for glyphosate a little bit.
As a whole, the global demand for glyphosate is mainly steady or slightly
increased. China’s glyphosate output in 2015 is predicted to realize
550,000-600,000 tonnes.
Forecast and analysis of China’s glyphosate
ex-works price
On one hand, as China’s glyphosate is
mainly exported overseas, the changes of the overseas demand will significantly
affect China’s glyphosate ex-works price. In 2014, China’s overseas demand was
generally weak and one of reasons was probably that part of overseas traders
sold the glyphosate stocked in the inventories. In 2015, the overseas traders
who sold out their inventoried glyphosate are expected to propel the overseas
demand for China’s glyphosate, which will actively enhance China’s glyphosate
ex-works price. However, on the other hand, China’s current production capacity
of glyphosate has been excessive and it is of high possibility that there will
be new production capacity in 2015 and the output of 2015 will be more than
that of 2014. Moreover, if overseas glyphosate manufacturers maintain regular
production in 2015, it will prevent the overseas market from importing more
China’s glyphosate technical. Based on the above situations, China’s glyphosate
ex-works price will not rise greatly in 2015 and maybe will not reach the
average price levels of 2013 and 2014 and will be very likely to encounter the
similar price of 2011 or 2012. It is predicted that China’s glyphosate ex-works
price in 2015 will be fluctuated between USD3,700/t (RMB23,000/t) and
USD4,700/t (RMB28,000/t).
About CCM:
CCM is the leading market intelligence
provider for China’s agriculture, chemicals, food & ingredients and life
science markets. Founded in 2001, CCM offers a range of data and content
solutions, from price and trade data to industry newsletters and customized
market research reports. Our clients include Monsanto, DuPont, Shell, Bayer,
and Syngenta. CCM is a brand of Kcomber Inc.
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Tag: glyphosate